February 12 is an important day in the political history of Bangladesh. The 13th National Parliament election is going to be held on this day after the rule of the interim government for almost a year and a half. However, there is widespread speculation among political analysts and the general public about what the overall situation in the country will be like after the voting on February 13.
According to the Election Commission, after the voting on February 12, the results will start to become clear by the afternoon of February 13. In the absence of the Awami League in the election, the main competition is between the BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance. Whoever emerges as the majority party will take charge of Bangladesh for the next 5 years. After the 12th, the process of returning an ‘elected government’ to the country after a long time will begin.
Earlier, the ICJ report said that one of the main features of this election is the absence of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League, one of the two largest political forces in Bangladesh. However, the election, which will be held between the two alliances led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Jamaat-e-Islami, will be fiercely contested. BNP is one of the largest political parties in Bangladesh and the main rival of the Awami League. BNP was in power from 2001 to 2006. The party has a strong organizational reach and widespread public support across the country. However, the party’s image has been damaged in the recent year. Many believe that BNP’s grassroots leaders and activists are involved in extortion and criminal activities.
On the other hand, BNP’s main rival in the election is Jamaat-e-Islami, the largest Islamist political party in Bangladesh. The party was subjected to widespread repression during Sheikh Hasina’s rule. However, the party benefited the most due to the active role of Jamaat’s student organization in the 2024 mass uprising. The party’s Ameer Shafiqur Rahman has emerged as one of the most influential political leaders in the country in recent times. However, many young people are relatively less interested in controversial roles such as supporting the Pakistani army during the 1971 Liberation War and involvement in genocide.
There is doubt in the public mind whether the situation will remain calm after the 12th. Although the army and law enforcement agencies have announced strict security, the fear of isolated political unrest or tension centered on victory processions in different parts of the country after the results cannot be ruled out. However, the government has stated that a zero tolerance policy will be adopted to prevent any kind of retaliatory violence.
In the post-election period, the main focus of the common people of the country will be on the economy. Regardless of which new government comes after the 12th, the biggest challenge before them will be to control commodity prices and ensure the protection of reserves. Businessmen hope that after the arrival of an elected government, foreign direct investment (FDI) will increase in the country and the stagnation in foreign trade will end.
Bangladesh’s international image will depend on the transparency and impartiality of the 12th election. The next few days of the election will be crucial in determining the new government’s relations with the United Nations, the European Union, and neighboring countries like India and Pakistan. Issues like restoring cricket ties with Pakistan or border and water agreements with India will be high on the new government’s agenda.
The extent to which the government elected after the 12th will maintain the administrative and judicial reforms initiated by the interim government is a big question. Pressure from civil society will continue to push for reforms in the education, health, and banking sectors.
According to political scientists and analysts, Bangladesh will embark on a ‘democratic transition’ after February 12. However, overcoming the long-standing polarization and establishing a stable and participatory governance system will be the key test for the next government.